ABSTRACT
Objective: To explore the feasibility of moving epidemic method (MEM) in the assessment of seasonal influenza (influenza) activity intensity from the perspective of urban agglomeration, assess influenza activity intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019 to 2021 and evaluate the reliability of surveillance data and the effectiveness of the MEM model application. Methods: The weekly reported incidence rate (IR) of influenza and the percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) from 2011-2021 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were collected to establish MEM models respectively. The model fitting effect and the reliability of the two data were evaluated for the purpose of establishing an optimal model to assess the influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019-2021. A cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the performance of the models by calculating the Youden's index, sensitivity and specificity. Results: The MEM model fitted with weekly ILI% had a higher Youden's index compared with the model fitted with weekly IR at both Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region level and provincial level. The MEM model based on ILI% showed that the epidemic threshold in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2019-2020 was 4.42%, the post-epidemic threshold was 4.66%, with medium, high and very high intensity thresholds as 5.38%, 7.22% and 7.84%, respectively. The influenza season during 2019-2020 had 10 weeks (week 50 of 2019 to week 7 of 2020). The influenza season started in week 50 of 2019, and the intensity fluctuated above and below medium epidemic level for six consecutive weeks. The high intensity was observed in week 4 of 2020, the threshold of very high intensity was excessed in week 5, and the intensity gradually declined and became lower than the threshold at the end of the influenza season in week 8. The epidemic threshold was 4.29% and the post-epidemic threshold was 4.35% during 2020-2021. Influenza activity level never excessed the epidemic threshold throughout the year, and no epidemic period emerged. Conclusions: The MEM model could be applied in the assessment of influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the use of ILI% to assess influenza activity intensity in this region was more reliable than IR data. Influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was higher during 2019-2020 but significantly lower in 2020-2021.
Subject(s)
Humans , Beijing/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Seasons , Reproducibility of Results , Epidemics , China/epidemiologyABSTRACT
@#Objective To investigate the reliability of ultrasound tissue characterization (UTC) for quantifing the integrity of achilles ten-don and patellar tendon in subjects without tendinopathy. Methods From August, 2016 to April, 2017, testers A and B quantified integrity of achilles tendon and patellar tendon of dominant legs from 43 subjects without tendinopathy by UTC in random order respectively. Tester B quantified integrity of patellar tendon of dominant legs from other 22 subjects without tendinopathy by the same way, and repeated the mea-surements the next day. Interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the minimum detectable different (MDD) were calculated. Results The ICC of inter-rater reliability of achilles tendon assessment was 0.492 to 0.735, MDD was 0.3%to 3.0%. The ICC of inter-rater reliability of patellar tendon assessment was 0.383 to 0.678, MDD was 0.3%to 4.4%. The ICC of intra-rater reliability of patellar tendon assessment was 0.525~0.760, MDD was 0.6%to 5.3%. Conclusion The test-retest reliability of UTC for the quantification of integrity structure of achilles tendon and patellar tendon is satisfactory with little error, the inter-rater reliability need to be improved. which is a accurate and feasible tool to quantify tendon by the same tester.
ABSTRACT
@#Objective To investigate the reliability of ultrasound tissue characterization (UTC) for quantifing the integrity of achilles ten-don and patellar tendon in subjects without tendinopathy. Methods From August, 2016 to April, 2017, testers A and B quantified integrity of achilles tendon and patellar tendon of dominant legs from 43 subjects without tendinopathy by UTC in random order respectively. Tester B quantified integrity of patellar tendon of dominant legs from other 22 subjects without tendinopathy by the same way, and repeated the mea-surements the next day. Interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the minimum detectable different (MDD) were calculated. Results The ICC of inter-rater reliability of achilles tendon assessment was 0.492 to 0.735, MDD was 0.3%to 3.0%. The ICC of inter-rater reliability of patellar tendon assessment was 0.383 to 0.678, MDD was 0.3%to 4.4%. The ICC of intra-rater reliability of patellar tendon assessment was 0.525~0.760, MDD was 0.6%to 5.3%. Conclusion The test-retest reliability of UTC for the quantification of integrity structure of achilles tendon and patellar tendon is satisfactory with little error, the inter-rater reliability need to be improved. which is a accurate and feasible tool to quantify tendon by the same tester.